A year ago at this time, the Minnesota Vikings brass held countless meetings on the third floor of the TCO Performance Center, ironing out the path they would take at quarterback.
Eventually, they settled on a strategy: Detach from the yearly “What should we do?” questions, allow veteran Kirk Cousins to sign elsewhere and draft a youngster. In other words, they decided to do the best they could do within the salary-cap structure to build a Super Bowl-caliber team.
The front office executed that plan. Cousins departed for a $180 million contract with the Atlanta Falcons. And the Vikings drafted J.J. McCarthy with the 10th pick, embracing the opportunities that could come with McCarthy and free-agent signing/supposed bridge quarterback Sam Darnold.
Rather than flounder, the Vikings have overachieved. So much so, especially at quarterback, that they may soon find themselves back in the cycle they tried to get out of. Pick any passing statistic or watch any segment of the tape, and Darnold’s exceptional play of late is unquestionable.
All season, head coach Kevin O’Connell has hoped to keep Darnold’s eyes focused on the here and now — and away from the future. With the Vikings now 11-2 and staring down the Detroit Lions in the NFC North, that won’t change. Externally, though, the conversation — Should the Vikings keep Darnold? And if so, how would that work? — is occupying time in many corners of the NFL media world. And it should. It involves a relevant team, a resurgent quarterback, a highly touted youngster, NFL team-building strategies, big-money contracts and so much more.
Nobody knows how it will go down, including the Vikings’ decision-makers. How Darnold completes the season will dictate both the Vikings’ view and his market value. McCarthy’s continued rehab from his torn meniscus will matter, too.
To be clear, this is not the same calculus as moving on from a 35-year-old quarterback returning from a torn Achilles, even if the Vikings’ salary-cap structure is set up around the benefits of McCarthy’s rookie contract. But it’s also not so different from the Cousins conversation that the lack of middle-class quarterback contracts cannot be noted.
These are just a couple of the back-and-forths happening already. At the very least, unlike last year, a pre-decision extension for O’Connell should be on the docket to allow for clearheaded long-term planning. Then the Vikings must weigh their options. It’s still early, but here are some potential paths.
Darnold signs a multiyear contract elsewhere that the Vikings aren’t willing to match
This first avenue gets at the core question: What will Darnold be worth on the open market?
According to Over The Cap’s valuation, Darnold’s performance value this season is around $35 million, which is in line with Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Cousins and even Justin Herbert.
Darnold is almost certainly going to be the premier quarterback on the free-agent market. And considering the questions about the likely top quarterback draftees (Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders, etc.) and the number of teams seeking quarterbacks (Giants, Raiders, Browns, Titans, etc.), a hefty offer could be in store.
This spring, Mayfield received a three-year, $100 million deal with $50 million guaranteed from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Last year, Derek Carr signed a four-year, $150 million contract with the New Orleans Saints with $100 million guaranteed. The 27-year-old Darnold is younger than both of them, but his sample size of success is also smaller. As with Cousins last offseason, the bottom line is that all it’ll take is one team to pony up for Darnold’s market to be pushed to exorbitant levels. Vikings offensive coordinator Wes Phillips said Tuesday that’s what he expects.
“I think we all know that Sam is going to be a sought-after type of guy from wherever that may be,” Phillips said. “Whatever his future ends up being, I know all of us in this building are going to be happy for him no matter where that ends up being. I don’t think he has to worry about that anymore.”
We should also note that Darnold signing a premium contract elsewhere could return a third-round compensatory pick, depending on how much the Vikings spend in free agency. Accounting for the value of a future pick is relevant in the overall calculus.
Use the franchise tag on Darnold, and he begins 2025 as the starter
The franchise tag is a tool teams have at their disposal to prevent a player from hitting the open market. Players and agents typically dislike the tag because it’s a way for teams to keep players around in the short term (often for less money) while also guarding against injury risk and deteriorating performance. Spotrac projects the quarterback franchise tag for 2025 to be around $41 million.
Using the tag on Darnold could inject turbulence into what has otherwise been a near-perfect marriage. Darnold would then be confined to a one-year prove-it type of deal. The Vikings would likely explain the move by suggesting another year with O’Connell, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison could even further strengthen Darnold’s prospects.
O’Connell suggested Wednesday that the longer Darnold is around, the better this offense will be.
“Sam is wildly talented,” O’Connell said. “He’s making some unbelievable, big-time throws and plays. I think as he continues to ascend and get more comfortable, defenses are going to try to do things. But where he’s at in this season and in this system, I have a ton of confidence that Sam’s going to continue onward and upward.”
Allocating around $41 million for Darnold would limit the resources that could be spent elsewhere to improve the roster. But it should be noted the Vikings are projected to have upward of $76 million in cap space for 2025, according to Over The Cap. Bringing Darnold back for another season would shrink the window of benefiting from McCarthy’s rookie contract, but he would still be only 23 by the time Darnold completed his season on the tag.
Use the franchise tag on Darnold, wait until McCarthy’s ready and then trade Darnold
This might be the most ruthless of the strategies, but it also might be the most beneficial.
The Vikings could tag Darnold, then continue to assess McCarthy’s progress. If O’Connell deems the youngster ready for the top job, they could then trade Darnold and recoup immediate draft capital. These types of tag-and-trade approaches are rare, but they often can align for both sides.
If this is the plan the Vikings pursue, it’s conceivable they’d receive something better than a third-round compensatory pick in return. And Darnold, meanwhile, would have the chance to secure a longer-term contract elsewhere.
J.J. McCarthy has missed the entire regular season with a torn meniscus but is expected to be ready for 2025. (Brad Rempel / USA Today)
Sign Darnold to a multiyear contract — but then what do they do with McCarthy?
This is probably the least likely of the options. Why prematurely commit to a massive deal if you don’t have to?
How poorly can this sort of plan end up? Ask the Giants about Daniel Jones. In 2022, Jones threw for 3,205 yards and 15 touchdowns and added a career-high 708 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground. He capped the season by torching Ed Donatell’s Vikings defense in the wild-card round of the playoffs. Jones’ production presented a fork in the road for the Giants: Extend Jones or give him the franchise tag?
New York opted for the former, signing Jones to a four-year, $160 million deal with $81 million guaranteed. The move limited the Giants’ roster-building options. This offseason, two of the team’s best players, Saquon Barkley and Xavier McKinney, signed elsewhere. Jones’ trajectory dipped, and the Giants released him.
As it relates to Darnold, any multiyear contract would counteract the advantages of McCarthy’s rookie contract. McCarthy waiting his turn for another season would be one thing. Eating up potentially three seasons of rookie quarterback benefits (including this year) would be a tough pill to swallow — unless Minnesota views him as that far away.
All indications are that it doesn’t. Before the torn meniscus, McCarthy had been impressing beyond expectations. O’Connell meets with him weekly and remains positive about McCarthy’s direction.
“I know this,” O’Connell said, “he’s got great questions and they’re very in-depth, and it shows me a guy who’s learning not just the top layer. He’s been trying to consume the information as if he was playing.”