The latest NFC playoff picture has the Vikings headed to Atlanta in the wild card round.
You know it’s inevitable, right? The NFL script writers aren’t going to pass up a storyline this juicy.
There’s a lot of season left to be played this year, but if the playoffs began right now, the Vikings would be headed to Atlanta for the 4 seed vs. 5 seed matchup in the NFC wild card round. That would mean facing off against old friend Kirk Cousins in what would be just the fifth postseason start of his career. The drama would be incredible.
NFC playoff picture through Week 11
NFC playoff picture through Week 11 / NFL GSIS
FTN Fantasy’s DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) formula — which has the Vikings as the fourth-best team in the NFL and the second-best team in the NFC — gives Minnesota a 94.8 percent chance to reach the postseason. Here’s how they break down the Vikings’ odds to end up with each of the seven specific seeds:
1 seed: 4.7%
2 seed: 1.2%
3 seed: 0.1%
4 seed: 0.0%
5 seed: 51.9%
6 seed: 23.1%
7 seed: 13.8%
So according to their metrics, there’s a better than 50 percent chance that the Vikings end up as the No. 5 seed. That’s because they’re projected to continue winning enough games to stay in front of the other wild card teams, but not enough to pass the Lions. Detroit, the top-ranked team in DVOA by a wide margin, is given a 92.9 percent chance to win the NFC North and an 85.8 percent chance to be the No. 1 seed.
As for the No. 4 seed, the Falcons are by far the most likely team to end up in that spot, per DVOA (47.9 percent). The Buccaneers (18.2) and Cardinals (16.7) also have a decent shot at being the No. 4, and the other three NFC West teams can’t be ruled out either, but there’s a clear path for Atlanta to be the worst seed of the four NFC division winners.
Before the playoffs roll around, the Vikings still have a lot of work to do in the final seven games of the regular season. All seven are against NFC opponents who are 4-6 or better, and four are against division rivals. The Vikings also play the Cardinals, Falcons, and Seahawks in games that could have major impacts on seeding.
We’re guaranteed to get a Vikings-Cousins showdown at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 14. Another one five weeks later in Atlanta, with a berth in the divisional round on the line, would be quite the way for this season to play out. Either Cousins sends home the team that declined to re-sign him this offseason — or vice versa. Adding to the drama is that it would be the first playoff meeting between the two teams since the infamous-in-Minnesota 1998 NFC Championship Game.
It’s almost too perfect to not happen.