Reaching 13 wins has been a rarity for the Vikings. Led by a journeyman QB and a good head coach, and having already survived the daunting part of the schedule, this year’s team has a chance to reach that milestone.
Since the 1998 Vikings went 15-1 in the regular season, the franchise has produced two seasons of 13 or more regular-season victories.
Before 1998, the Vikings, in part because of shorter schedules during their glory days, had produced zero.
Eight games into the 2024 campaign, the Vikings look poised to reach 13 again.
They are 6-2. Their next two games are against bad teams — Jacksonville and Tennessee — on the road. Then they play against a suddenly-struggling Bears team in Chicago.
The Vikings are capable of winning their next three and entering the stretch run with a 9-2 record.
Do they compare to the last two 13-win Vikings teams? In some ways, yes.
The Quarterback
The 2017, 2022 and 2024 quarterbacks have one obvious characteristic in common; all three were veterans who had played for multiple teams and responded well to working with a highly-regarded offensive staff.
In 2017, Case Keenum, a journeyman backup who replaced the injured Sam Bradford, had his best season under offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur and quarterbacks coach Kevin Stefanski, the reigning NFL coach of the year.
Shurmur’s reputation was damaged by his struggles as a head coach, but he was the ideal coordinator for head coach Mike Zimmer, because he was creative in the run game and married a ball-control offense to Zimmer’s best defense.
In 2022, Kirk Cousins didn’t post his best traditional stat line but excelled at what previously had been considered weaknesses — leading and being clutch. Cousins’ relationship with Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell and offensive coordinator Wes Phillips altered his reputation.
In 2024, journeyman Sam Darnold, in perhaps his last chance to salvage his career, has far exceeded expectations.
The Schedule
In 2017, the Vikings went 5-3 against teams that finished with winning records and 8-0 against teams that finished with losing records.
In 2022, the Vikings went 3-2 against teams above .500 and 10-2 against teams .500 or worse.
In 2024, the Vikings are 2-1 against teams that are better than .500 and 4-1 against teams .500 or worse.
To win big, you’ve got to survive the tough part of your schedule and dominate bad teams.
Close games
In 2017, the Vikings went 5-2 in games decided by single digits. In 2022, they went a stunning 11-0 in such games. This season, they are 4-1.
Veteran running backs
In 2017, the Vikings signed veteran backup Latavius Murray. When rookie Dalvin Cook suffered a knee injury, Murray, then 27, took over as the lead back, producing 842 yards and eight touchdowns rushing.
In 2022, Cook, 27, rushed for 1,173 yards and eight touchdowns.
In 2024, Aaron Jones, 29, is on pace to rush for 1,201 yards and four touchdowns.
Harrison, Ham & Head Coach
Two current Vikings played on the 2017, ‘22 and ‘24 teams — star safety Harrison Smith, and fullback and team captain C.J. Ham.
Smith was one of the best players in the league in 2017. In 2022 and 2024 he has been less explosive but perhaps even more savvy.
Ham is the kind of player who sticks on NFL rosters because he’s very good at his primary job and is versatile, affordable and egoless.
Zimmer was the head coach in 2017. O’Connell has a chance to become the first Vikings coach ever to produce two 13-win seasons.
Their differences are obvious, but in 2017, Zimmer was considered a players coach, at least by defensive players, and O’Connell works to maintain a rapport with all of his players.
Are the 2024 Vikings good enough to win 13 or more games?
They’ve beaten three teams considered championship contenders entering the season — San Francisco, Houston and Green Bay. They lost by just two to Detroit, widely considered the best team in the NFL right now. Their other loss came on a West Coast night game four days after they played the Lions.
The ‘24 team doesn’t have a bad loss, and has a slew of quality victories.
Given the relative ease of the remainder of the schedule, the ‘24 Vikings could well get to 13 wins.