There has perhaps been no more surprising team in the NFL this season than the Minnesota Vikings.
With the departure of Kirk Cousins, the arrival of Sam Darnold, an overhaul of the defense and a loaded division, many expected this to be a rebuilding year for Minnesota. Instead, the Vikings are 12-2 and firmly in the race for the NFC’s No. 1 overall seed in the homestretch.
The Detroit Lions, also 12-2, currently lead the NFC North and hold the No. 1 seed thanks to a Week 7 win over the Vikings. The 12-2 Philadelphia Eagles are also vying for the top spot in the NFC. The NFL currently gives the Vikings an 18% chance of earning the top seed, with the Eagles at 30% and the Lions leading the pack with a 52% chance.
So, how can the Vikings come out on top, earning a bye and home-field advantage? It’s fairly straightforward, actually.
If the Vikings win their remaining three games, they’re in great position to earn the No. 1 seed, regardless of what the Eagles or Lions do.
That’s a tough row to hoe, though. Two of their remaining three games are on the road — Seattle in Week 16 and Detroit in Week 18 — and all three are against likely playoff teams (Seahawks, Packers, Lions).
They may get a break against the Seahawks, who could be starting backup quarterback Sam Howell after starter Geno Smith left the team’s loss to the Packers with an injury.
The Vikings host the Packers at U.S. Bank Stadium having already beat them on the road this season.
Injuries have absolutely depredated the Lions’ defense, so if the Vikings offense can score points and the defense can earn a couple of stops, that game’s not out of reach, despite being on Detroit’s home turf.
By winning out, the Vikings would finish 15-2 and necessarily have a better record than the Lions since the two teams play each other in Week 18. The Lions would finish 14-3 and earn a wild card spot.
If the Eagles also finish 15-2, the No. 1 seed would come down to tiebreakers, the first of which is head-to-head record. Since the Vikings and Eagles didn’t play each other this season, that’s not applicable.
Then we go to conference win percentage. If both teams win out, they will finish with identical 10-2 records against the NFC.
On to the next one, which is win percentage in common games. Philadelphia and Minnesota have four common opponents this season — the New York Giants, Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons, Los Angeles Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars. Both teams would be 5-1 against common opponents, so this won’t settle things, either.
On we go to strength of victory in all games, which simply means the combined record of all the teams the Vikings and Eagles have each defeated. This one’s trickier to calculate, because there are still three weeks left in the season. While the Eagles currently hold the tiebreaker here, the Vikings would likely get the edge by season’s end because of their remaining schedule. Minnesota plays the Seattle Seahawks (currently 8-6), Packers (10-4) and Lions (12-2), while Philadelphia plays the Washington Commanders (9-5), Dallas Cowboys (6-8) and Giants (2-12).
That’s a lot of words to say something relatively simple: To give themselves a shot at the No. 1 seed, the Vikings have to win out. Sure, there are unlikely scenarios where they could drop a game or two and still finish on top. But head coach Kevin O’Connell’s team is probably thrilled that they control their own destiny this late in the season.
It’s already been a season for the ages for the Vikings. Just how memorable it will be remains to be seen.