FRISCO, Texas – With losses and injuries piling up for both Houston and Dallas, the extra day of rest and preparation heading into Monday Night Football is welcomed with open arms. How could the Cowboys get an advantage and break their four-game losing skid? Let’s discuss in the first MNF edition of Here We Goooo:
1. Protect the middle of the field
The Dallas Cowboys have struggled to cover the middle of the field defensively all year, allowing 10 receptions for 169 yards and two touchdowns between the hashes this season.
Well, C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins’ connection in the middle of the field just so happens to be their bread and butter. They’ve connected five times for 112 yards and two touchdowns between the hashes and are even better when Collins runs in-breaking routes where he’s caught 16 passes for 244 and two touchdowns. Collins, who hasn’t played since Oct. 6 when Houston beat the Bills due to a hamstring injury, is expected to practice this week in anticipation for a return on Monday night.
Stroud hasn’t been his best at times this season compared to his Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign in 2023 but is still surgical in intermediate passing attempts. When he’s thrown the ball between 10-19 yards since coming into the league, it’s gone for 2,088 yards (3rd most in the league) on just about a quarter of his passing attempts (24.9%), the 6th-highest rate in the NFL.
Dallas’ defense has struggled mightily in that area of the field, allowing the most yards per attempt (12.4), EPA per dropback (+0.7) and 5th-highest success rate (61.5%) on intermediate area passes this season. This’ll be a big game for Cowboys secondary, who could use some help from their pass rush to help take away this area of the field.
2. Get interior-line pressure
And the good news is that the defensive line has a good opportunity to not only generate pressure but clog up Joe Mixon’s run lanes as well. The Cowboys’ run defense has been better over the last two weeks and has a chance to keep that trend going against a Houston offensive line that has struggled on the interior.
Joe Mixon struggled against the Lions defense last Sunday night, recording -48 rushing yards over expected in the loss, the fewest he’s had in a game since 2018. He had been averaging a career-best 3.6 yards after contact, but had that number cut nearly in half to 1.7 against Detroit.
They key for Dallas in the run game will be slowing down Mixon between the tackles, where Houston’s offensive line is at its weakest point. Mixon has carried the ball 62 times for 282 yards and touchdown in that area of the field, while the Cowboys have given up 459 yards and nine touchdowns on 95 carries in that same area. If they can continue to trend in the right direction when it comes to stopping the run, it’ll bode well.
Micah Parsons returning to the fold last week provided a much-needed spark for Dallas’ pass rush, and it couldn’t have come at a better time. C.J. Stroud is the second-most sacked quarterback in the NFL, going down 34 times this season and losing a league-leading 269 yards on those sacks.
And the pressure isn’t limited to coming off the edge either. Houston’s guards, Shaq Mason and Juice Scruggs, have given up a combined 58 quarterback pressures this season. This is the game where Osa Odighizuwa, Mazi Smith, and Linval Joseph need to wreak havoc.
3. Win the third quarter
Starting out strong in the second half has not been a trait for the Cowboys at all in 2024. In fact, it’s been more of the opposite, as Dallas’ opponents have scored 82 points in the third quarter while the Cowboys have only scored 28.
No one can really put a finger on why Dallas has struggled in the third so much, but here’s part of the reason: The Cowboys have faced four of the top six 3rd quarter offenses this season, and three in the last four games.
The good news is the Texans have struggled just as much defensively in the third quarter this season, allowing the second most touchdowns in the NFL (9) in the first 15 minutes coming out of halftime. Their offense has only scored two third quarter touchdowns and averages 3.2 points per game, falling at 25th in the league at that metric.
Dallas 2.4 points per game in the third is the worst rate in the NFL, and their defense giving up an average of 107.9 yards per game in the third is also the most in the league, but they have a chance to remedy some of that against a team that’s facing similar issues finding stops to start the second half. In my opinion, whoever wins the third quarter wins this game.