Minnesota could give J.J. McCarthy another year of development. Plus, Ben Johnson’s coaching future, the steal of the 2024 draft and more in Albert Breer’s mailbag.
Your post-Christmas mailbag is full and here for you …
From Larry Frost (@mtgummibear): What’s your personal opinion on how the Vikings should approach the Sam Darnold situation?
Larry, I know how much the Vikings think of J.J. McCarthy, so for a while, I thought the smart move would be to trust your program for developing quarterbacks, swallow hard and let Sam Darnold go while turning to the 10th pick from last April. Doing that, of course, would give you the kind of financial flexibility contending teams rarely have over the next three years, while McCarthy is playing out his rookie deal.
But now? Darnold has played so well, it’s complicated matters. McCarthy’s been out since August, and I wouldn’t expect that he’d be able to show much until the spring. You’ve got a good roster full of players that should have a win-now expectation (they’re 13–2 as it is). And so, to me, in service to those players, I think you have to think about the idea of franchise-tagging Darnold for 2025, even though the tag will exceed $40 million, and either give McCarthy another development year or open up a competition.
It’s not unprecedented, either, for whatever it’s worth. In 2004, the Chargers drafted Philip Rivers to replace Drew Brees. Brees then won the job in camp, had a dynamite 2004 season, and the Chargers tagged him in ’05—he injured his shoulder at the end of that season. In the long run, though, that circumstance worked out for everyone involved.
From ChiTownSports Fan (@ChiT0wnSports23): % likelihood you give of Johnson going to Bears as it stands today?
ChiTown, I think there are two sides to this.
On the Chicago Bears’ side, there’s no question there are reasons why Ben Johnson fits. The Detroit Lions’ OC is a really good candidate—his offensive acumen and work with Jared Goff speaks for itself. But if Chicago is truly looking for a leader-of-men type, there are boxes that Johnson will have to check in the interview process, because it may not be as easy to see with Johnson as it is with Mike Vrabel or even Johnson’s staffmate Aaron Glenn.
Then, there’s what Johnson wants. He’s going to be picky on which jobs he interviews for, and I believe he would take an interview with the Bears. But he has criteria for these jobs after two years of taking interviews. He’s looking for alignment with a general manager, whether he inherits that GM or not. He’s also looking for an ownership group that sees its prior mistakes and is willing to fix them. Which gives the Bears boxes to check.
I’m not saying that this won’t happen. While I do wonder if a place like Jacksonville might be a better fit, there are reasons a Bears–Johnson marriage could work. But there’s also a lot for both sides to figure out.
From Ronnie (@Tray4o): In the NFC North, which team do you see has the best chance to get to the Super Bowl?
The Lions. I just think they’ve shown they can win every which way. And while the injuries are tough, they should get David Montgomery, Alex Anzalone and even Aidan Hutchinson back at different points of the playoffs.
Remember, if they get the top seed and win one game, they will be back in the NFC title game, while buying their guys some time to get healthy and back on the field.
From Thomas Clark (@ThomasClark34): Merry Christmas Albert! Listen every week on Kap and J Hood! Two questions: 1) Who do you think the Bears are targeting for their No. 1 option as head coach? 2) Who would you hire? Cheers!
Thomas, I don’t think they have a No. 1 option yet. As we said, they set out, in their vetting, to find a leader-of-men type. One thing that’s become clear is that if that person isn’t a quarterback guy, per se, he’ll have to have a very clear plan for the quarterback. And along those lines, there are a bunch of names they’ve researched.
Among them are, like we said, Vrabel and Glenn. Kliff Kingsbury (with Caleb Williams last year at USC) and Brian Flores (a teammate of GM Ryan Poles at Boston College) are two they’ve looked at with connections to the team. Then, there’s Johnson. I’d expect interim coach Thomas Brown will get a good long look as well, and I know that the Bears are interested to hear from Pete Carroll, too.
So it’s wide open, which is why, at this point, I’ll stay away from guessing or making my own pick—there’s still a lot to be determined with that one.
From Cuse Kyle (@kylecuse315): Any update on Doug Pederson and Trent Baalke’s status with the Jaguars?
From Carson (@TJMtotaljagmove): What the heck is Shad Khan waiting for?
O.K., so there’s a lot of this out there—and the idea that the Jaguars could make in-season changes was alive going as far back as the team’s two-game trip to London in October. The 52–6 bloodbath in Detroit, just before Thanksgiving, and leading into the bye week, was another inflection point. And sure enough, Doug Pederson is still the team’s coach and Trent Baalke is still the team’s GM, something that could fuel the feeling over the years that Shad Khan has been, at least at points, an absentee owner.
I don’t think that’s it in this case. I think it’s probably more about what’s good for the core of young players now—and whether there’s a viable interim on staff that’ll keep guys engaged for the rest of the year.
From Chad Corcoran (@ChadECorcoran): Will Trent Baalke be the GM of the Jags in 2025? (Please say no)
Chad, I can’t imagine he will. There was a point earlier in the season where there were rumblings that he could survive the expected/looming coaching change, but that’s quieted a bit. And I understand why—Baalke’s been the ultimate survivor, getting both his shots at becoming a GM after his boss was fired, then making it through the terminations of Jim Harbaugh, Jim Tomsula and Urban Meyer in those two places.
If this one’s a half-measure, with Baalke back and Pederson gone, I’d really question the direction that the Khans are taking the Jaguars.
It’s been a disappointing rookie season for Harrison in Arizona. / Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images
From Raul (@raulvibe): What happened to Ohio State MHJ???
Raul, I think it’s several things. And it’s not that Marvin Harrison Jr. hasn’t been good—he’s been fine. It’s just that he hasn’t lived up to the two-year buildup over his final two seasons at Ohio State that he was going to be an otherworldly pro. Fox’s Joel Klatt said, during a Buckeyes’s blowout of Iowa in 2022 when Harrison was a sophomore, “I truly believe this man right here on your screen will be the best receiver in the NFL in about four or five years.” That, of course, is an incredibly high bar for any young player to clear.
And guess what? Harrison could still get there.
But through his first 15 games as a pro with the Arizona Cardinals, he “only” has 51 catches for 726 yards and seven touchdowns—great numbers for a rookie, but not for one carrying high expectations into the NFL.
So what’s held him back? The transition to the pros has been a little bumpier than expected, and Harrison is still learning what it takes to win effectively week in and week out, and the game speed of the NFL. Also, James Conner and Trey McBride have each taken another step as targets Kyler Murray can rely on. The offensive line has had issues that have thrown off the timing of the passing game. And there have been spots when he’s been open and Murray has simply missed him.
The good news is all of those issues are fixable. And knowing what I do about the way Harrison works, I’d bet pretty heavily on it getting fixed.
From Badd (@notatoast1): Who ended up being the biggest steal of the 2024 NFL draft?
In the first round, I’m going to go with Los Angeles Rams DE Jared Verse, who was selected with the 19th pick and has emerged as the favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year. The Rams looked at the idea of trading up for Georgia TE Brock Bowers, and Texas DT Byron Murphy II was high on their list, too—showing that Los Angeles has a pretty good idea of what it’s doing. In the end, sticking at 19 was the right move.
I’ve heard Verse compared physically to Terrell Suggs, which is pretty good for any 24-year-old defensive player. Tough, heavy-handed and disruptive, Verse’s 4.5 sacks don’t begin to explain how big of an impact he’s made for the Rams.
Further down the line, I’d go with Steelers second-round pick Zach Frazier. Internally, Pittsburgh feels like he’ll soon be one of the NFL’s best centers, and he’s helped to stabilize an area of the field that’s been a trouble spot for the Steelers for years. As for Day 3 picks, give me versatile Green Bay Packers safety Evan Williams, a fourth-rounder, and ball-hawking Los Angeles Chargers corner Tarheeb Still, a fifth-rounder (with a shoutout to linebackers coach NaVorro Bowman, who was with Still last year at Maryland, for that pick).
From Ty Detloff (@TyDetloff): What would it take for the Raiders to move up for a QB if they stay at the sixth pick?
Ty, I’d normally say that the Las Vegas Raiders shouldn’t do it, not in a year where there might not be a single quarterback worthy of going that high, without getting to see which ones fall to six.
But it does sound like owner Mark Davis is going to put the heat on whoever is in charge to draft one this year. Could that change if there’s new leadership? Sure. But my sense is that if the current group, Antonio Pierce included, is brought back in 2025, they’ll have to have a plan to find a long-term solution at quarterback. And that kind of pressure can lead to a team getting aggressive after they identify which one would work for them.
From Gumby (@RobHardin87): From a Cleveland native, how can the Browns get rid of Watson.
Gumby, long story short, they won’t be able to do it without a lot of pain. They have $172.77 million in cap charges left on Watson. Those can be managed, to a degree. They don’t go away. On top of that, it’ll be spring, at the earliest, before Deshaun Watson is healthy again, which only complicates their next steps with the quarterback they traded for three years ago.
That’s why my expectation is, and has been, that they work to add competition to the room, and maybe look for their version of Baker Mayfield in 2023 in Tampa (yes, I know, the irony in that example) or Sam Darnold this year. That, by the way, would be a marked change from the past couple of years, through which the Browns have tried to build a quarterback room that lifts Watson up, rather than one that opens a new set of questions.
From BobC (@2004inarow): Albert, any sense as to how the league feels about the kickoff changes? Concussions are down but that seems to be the only positive?
Bob, I definitely could see some tweaking with the kickoff (and the onside kick, too, for that matter), but I don’t know that there’ll be another wholesale change any time soon.
The reality is that concussion/injury reduction was the reason for all this in the first place. The league kept tweaking the old rule to the point where the play became a bit of a pointless exercise, so the new rules were an effort to keep the kickoff and make it more exciting again. It hasn’t really happened, but I can’t see the league going backward on any sort of changes that are health-and-safety related.
The lawyers wouldn’t allow it, even if they wanted to.
From Jessie (@tram2022): Who ya got for OROY? And what’s one rule change you’d like to see for next season?
Lots of really good candidates this year, but it’s Jayden Daniels—the No. 2 pick, in so many ways, has helped to reinvent the Washington Commanders. Washington has won 10 games with two to go, carrying a roster that’s still not close to being where GM Adam Peters and coach Dan Quinn envision it. Daniels deserves a lot of credit for that, and that’s with all due respect to Bo Nix, Brock Bowers, Drake Maye and Joe Alt.
From Bobby Thompson (@BThomps81): What will the #Patriots offseason plans be?
Bobby, they need to over-invest to get the offensive line right—I’m saying spend money and multiple top-100 picks on linemen. After that, stay loose for opportunities to add a star receiver to pair with Drake Maye through this developmental stage of his career, à la the Buffalo Bills trading for Stefon Diggs going into Josh Allen’s third year.
From erickleinphd (@DrEricKlein): Albert, why has there historically been so few trades for an NFL head coach? In the past, the Jets have been involved with trades for Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick and Herm Edwards. Do you think they could explore the possibility of a trade for a head coach again this year?
Erick, because star coaches don’t come available very often, and you’re really threading the needle in finding a way to work out trade terms, with all of the rules of interviewing and hiring candidates that exist in 2025. But, yes, teams can explore it, and I think they should more often as part of the process of identifying and vetting candidates.