For all the relief that was palpable from coaches and players in snapping a five-game losing streak Sunday, nothing changed for the Dallas Cowboys’ playoff chances in Austin Mock’s playoff projection model. Prior to Week 12, the Cowboys had a less than 1 percent chance of making the playoffs. After their win against the Washington Commanders, that percentage hasn’t changed. Dallas is in a nine-team clump that hasn’t been mathematically eliminated but requires a miracle to reach the postseason.
However, the model only projected three teams finishing with less wins than the Cowboys prior to their 34-26 victory. That number has bumped up to seven teams. Dallas doesn’t play a team that currently has a winning record for more than a month. According to Tankathon, the Cowboys have the eighth-easiest schedule remaining.
Tough times for fans who wanted to see the Cowboys get the highest slot possible in April’s NFL Draft.
Before we get any further, let’s reinstate the obvious: Coaches and players in Dallas will never look to actively tank. Put aside for a moment the physical risks that come with playing such a fast, violent sport intentionally passively at this level, with the level of athletes that the NFL offers. Front-office members have the benefit of taking a big-picture view of an organization’s situation. Fans, reporters and media pundits can play armchair GM, too. But coaches and players — for the most part — do not have a bigger picture mindset. For many of them, they can’t afford to.
After KaVontae Turpin’s spectacular kickoff return Sunday stole the spotlight, he was asked what it meant to him to have that moment to help end the team’s losing streak.
“Man, I just feel like, me personally, I needed that,” Turpin said. “My last contract year, I just feel like it was good for me to have that, especially on special teams. It’s just wonderful.”
Turpin has no guarantee for where he’ll be playing in 2025, or how much money he’ll secure. Same goes for Brandin Cooks, who is looking to make his return from injury soon. And Cooper Rush, Jourdan Lewis, Eric Kendricks, Rico Dowdle, Osa Odighizuwa and Chauncey Golston. The list is long. Turn it over to the coaches, and the same thing applies, starting at the very top with Mike McCarthy and trickling down to all three coordinators in Mike Zimmer, Brian Schottenheimer and John Fassel.
All of these individuals aren’t just performing for what looks like a lost season to outsiders. They are showing up daily for their future livelihoods.
That doesn’t mean fans can’t root for whatever result they have deemed best for the Cowboys’ future. If you are a member of Team Tank and Sunday’s win felt like a gut punch because Travis Hunter is all but out of the picture, your feeling is understandable. But there’s also a “be careful what you wish for” element to it. Proponents of tanking usually say their ideal result is to see progress from individuals but for the team to lose — as if it were so simple.
The Cowboys won Sunday in large part to contributions from T.J. Bass and Brock Hoffman filling big shoes admirably on the offensive line, Luke Schoonmaker finally showing up in the absence of Jake Ferguson, Josh Butler — not as young in age, but still a fresh talent — balling out in place of Trevon Diggs, and Turpin.
It’s only one game and this isn’t to say all of these players have suddenly cemented their status in Dallas for the future … but those are solid building blocks that should be encouraging for the Cowboys’ plan beyond this season. The Cowboys need these developments at this point. If losses pile up and Dallas’ draft slot climbs, that’s fine, but it should be a consolation prize, not the goal.
The Cowboys are missing starting quarterback Dak Prescott, but a lot of other pieces are in place, and many of them are young. Tyler Guyton’s performance Sunday, specifically the continuing penalty problems, may help the Cowboys lose games but it doesn’t make them feel better about their outlook at left tackle. If Guyton cleans up the penalties and starts performing at a high level down the stretch — and the Cowboys win games as a result — that is a good thing.
The other consequence of tanking is instilling a losing culture that leaves a strong stench. The Cowboys really don’t have that issue, and haven’t had it in a couple of decades. They’ve had bad seasons (2020 and 2015 as recent examples) but those campaigns are usually viewed as one-offs, with winning seasons around them. No matter how this year ends, it comes immediately after three consecutive 12-win seasons, and the core of that successful regular-season run will be intact in 2025. One bad season isn’t enough to rot the culture in terms of winning and losing.
There are exceptions to the rule: If a generational quarterback awaits at the top of the draft and if a team has major questions at that position. That approach isn’t foolproof, either (see Jacksonville Jaguars with Trevor Lawrence) and neither circumstance applies to the Cowboys this season, anyway.
Nobody knows how many wins the Cowboys will finish the 2024 season with but they will try to win every game left on the schedule. For some fans, any win will serve as a gut punch. For the Cowboys, each win is a building block to a brighter future.