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Brock Purdy has been better than Patrick Mahomes this season. Will that make a difference Sunday?

Posted on October 17, 2024 - 9:48 am by

The Kansas City Chiefs may be 5-0 while the 49ers are just 3-3, but Brock Purdy has outplayed Patrick Mahomes so far this season. That’s a key subplot entering Sunday’s Super Bowl rematch at Levi’s Stadium. But 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan remains wary of Mahomes and the rest of the defending champions.

“I think everyone says ‘down year’ just because his numbers aren’t [as] crazy, but Pat is as good as it gets,” Shanahan said Wednesday of Mahomes, who ranks No. 17 in expected points added (EPA) per play. “All their games except for one have come down to the last possession, and he’s as good as anyone in that last possession.”

What has changed from the last time these teams met in February is the style of QB play on the 49ers’ side of the field. Purdy has taken a markedly different path on his way to becoming Pro Football Focus’ top-rated quarterback in the NFL so far this season (Mahomes is No. 9). For example, Purdy is averaging 10 air yards per attempt and 9.1 air yards per completion. Both numbers rank No. 1 in the NFL. Mahomes, meanwhile, is dead last at 5.2 and 3.6 air yards, respectively.



Offenses evolve within the perpetual chess match of NFL play. Shanahan and Purdy, operating without injured space-making star Christian McCaffrey, have adapted by throwing the ball over the top of defenses that are aggressively crowding the middle of the field — often with an extra player patrolling those intermediate areas.

Mahomes and Kansas City coach Andy Reid, meanwhile, have shifted away from some free-wheeling tendencies of the past to an attack centered on screens and other short passes. In the Chiefs’ most recent game against New Orleans, 11 of Mahomes’ 28 completions went to targets at or behind the line of scrimmage.

“They always dabble in screens, RPOs — you’ve always got to be ready for new plays, ones that you haven’t seen,” Shanahan said. “I’ve always enjoyed watching Andy since he was back in Philly and he continues to evolve.”



The 49ers and Chiefs have been consistent NFL leaders in yards after the catch (YAC) for the past several seasons. Unsurprisingly, Kansas City remains at the top of the list with its short-heavy approach. But the 49ers, who ranked No. 1 in YAC last season, are now at the very bottom — and by a wide margin.

The 49ers anticipate the pendulum will swing back toward some better short-game productivity if they can sustain a more efficient rushing threat and if defenses counter-adjust as expected to Purdy’s aggressive play. (They registered their best performance on the ground in last week’s win over the Seattle Seahawks, racking up 228 yards on 6.9 yards per carry.)

But up until now, Purdy has had to ski some hazardous, black-diamond slopes as a passer. Per Next Gen Stats, his average time from snap to release, 3.17 seconds, is the longest in the NFL. He’s working with the least average separation at the time of catch — 2.8 yards — of any quarterback. And he’s also throwing into tight windows at a 23 percent clip, the highest rate in the league.



There’s a good chance that the sledding won’t get any easier against the Chiefs, who rank No. 10 in defense EPA per play under coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.

“I think [their defense] has gotten better and better each year,” Shanahan said. “I thought last year was the best defense that we played all year and I feel that way this year so far. They’ve got guys who’ve been playing a long time together. They’ve been doing his scheme for a while, [Spagnuolo’s] been doing his scheme for so long, but they continue to add to it. They continue to fine-tune it and I’ve got a lot of respect for him and his scheme.”

Kansas City held the 49ers to 22 points in Super Bowl LVIII. Spagnuolo dialed up blitzes on 52 percent of Purdy’s dropbacks, well above the Chiefs’ in-season blitz rate of about 20 percent. Shanahan noted that Kansas City has blitzed about 35 percent of the time this season, so the 49ers are bracing for another pressure-heavy game on Sunday.



“They play more press than anyone in the league, and they still do that this year, too,” Shanahan said. “They blitz more than anyone else in the league last year and they do this year, too.”

Purdy has been efficient against the blitz this season, ranking No. 4 in EPA per play. But the 49ers have been relatively inefficient against man-to-man coverage, which Kansas City paired successfully with its pressure in the Super Bowl.

How can Purdy and the 49ers ensure that this rematch goes more smoothly? Better efficiency on the ground generally forces defenses to play more zone coverage. Purdy could find his wheelhouse if the 49ers can succeed against Kansas City’s strong run defense, which ranks No. 8 in EPA per play.



But that underscores the daunting challenge that this game presents. Kansas City has a strong run defense, ranking No. 8 in EPA, so Purdy and the 49ers can’t expect anything to come easily.

But the same can be said for Mahomes and the Chiefs offense, who’ll square off against the 49ers’ improving defense. It’s a matchup that’ll undoubtedly shine spotlights on two of the game’s best quarterbacks. Oftentimes, that’s the only ingredient needed for a sizzling game.

Extra points

• Rookie receiver Ricky Pearsall, who was shot in the chest near Union Square on Aug. 31, has resumed practicing this week.

Pearsall chatted informally with a group of reporters in the locker room. He was in good spirits and said that he doesn’t yet know if the 49ers plan to fully activate him to the 53-man roster by Sunday’s game. The team has three weeks to do so after opening Pearsall’s practice window from the non-football injury list on Monday.



• Receiver Jauan Jennings missed practice with a hip issue. Shanahan said he suffered the injury during the Seattle game last week. Defensive tackle Maliek Collins missed the session with a knee injury, while kicker Matthew Wright was still out following his shoulder dislocation last week.

The 49ers signed former Green Bay Packers kicker Anders Carlson to the practice squad. They can call him up for Sunday’s game if Wright is unavailable. That’d mark the 49ers’ third kicker used in three weeks, since starter Jake Moody is currently out with a high ankle sprain. Some good news: Moody walked around at practice Wednesday without a brace or a limp.