Signing a lucrative, long-term contract is obviously a cause for celebration for a player. The disappointment can come with what happens on the field afterward.
Both Deebo Samuel and Nick Bosa have previously spoken openly about how their long contract sagas with the San Francisco 49ers impacted their performance in the season after signing their respective deals.
With Brandon Aiyuk agreeing to a four-year, $120 million extension on Thursday, just 11 days before the 49ers kick off their campaign with a Monday Night Football matchup with the New York Jets, it’s fair to wonder whether he could be the next star to endure something of a letdown season after coming to terms on a big-money deal.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan has previously indicated his belief that Aiyuk executing a ‘hold-in’, attending meetings but not taking part in practice, rather than a complete holdout will have been beneficial in this regard.
The question, though Aiyuk has done conditioning work at the facility, is more of a physical one, and there are likely to be some who doubt that a week’s worth of practice will be enough to get the 49ers’ leading receiver from the last two seasons into ‘football shape’.
Yet there are several reasons why Aiyuk is well positioned to overcome those concerns and continue to excel despite his lack of time on the practice field in 2024.
A different kind of skill set
Unlike Samuel, whose success at the receiver position is built predominantly on his physical prowess, Aiyuk is not overly reliant on his athletic gifts.
Indeed, Aiyuk is able to win consistently with his route-running craft, with that the primary attribute that has seen him blossom into a receiver worth paying $30 million a year.
Per Reception Perception, Aiyuk had a 78.7 percent success rate versus man coverage in 2023, putting him in the 96th percentile. He was in the 97th percentile against press with an 83.6 percent success rate. Additionally, he had an 85.4 percent success against zone coverage, earning him a spot in the 91st percentile.
Aiyuk’s ability to beat all kinds of coverage is obviously in part down to physical attributes he possesses, with quickness and lower-body flexibility playing a key role, but they are unlikely to have diminished in his time away from the practice field.
Even if Aiyuk isn’t separating at the level the 49ers are used to right off the bat, the offense in which he is operating should help him maintain a high baseline level of performance.
Scheme and supporting cast
Shanahan has long since been renowned for scheming his receivers open. That isn’t necessary as often with a player of Aiyuk’s route-running gifts, however, the combination of the 49er head coach’s prowess in that area and San Francisco’s increasing ranks of skill-position talent figure to mitigate the impact of a potential slow start from the team’s leading receiver from the last two years.
In addition to Samuel, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey and Jauan Jennings, the 49ers now have rookies Ricky Pearsall and Jacob Cowing, who both head into the league having impressed as separators in college.
It isn’t clear how much either will be used early as rookies, and Pearsall’s status is in doubt after he was shot in an attempted robbery on Saturday. He was released from hospital on Sunday.
But, when healthy, the gifts Pearsall and Cowing each have as route-runners and the latter’s speed increase an already burgeoning menu for Shanahan, giving him more prospective avenues to create space for Aiyuk and the plethora of other passing-game weapons at his disposal.
Re-establishing the rapport
Along with his route-running, what sets Aiyuk apart from the rest of the playmakers on the 49er offense is his rapport with quarterback Brock Purdy.
Kittle, Samuel and Jennings have a strong understanding with the 49ers’ signal-caller, but Purdy’s connection with Aiyuk is on a level approaching symbiosis.
When targeting Aiyuk last season, Purdy averaged 0.761 Expected Points Added per play, per nflindex.com. Kittle was the next best receiver in that metric, with targets to the 49ers’ All-Pro tight end averaging 0.708 EPA. However, no other receiver on the team averaged 0.5 EPA per play. For context, Purdy’s season-long EPA per play throwing the ball last year was 0.338.
Re-establishing that rapport in just one week of practice won’t be easy, but it should be noted that, in Purdy’s first start in 2022 after being thrown in for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo, Aiyuk had 57 yards and a touchdown, rapidly getting in sync with his quarterback. He later had an 81-yard performance against the Washington Commanders and a nine-catch, 101-yard showing versus the Las Vegas Raiders as the Niners went unbeaten across Purdy’s first five starts.
As such, the quick turnaround won’t be daunting to Aiyuk. In fact, the biggest obstacle that could threaten Aiyuk’s hopes of quickly returning to All-Pro form might be a lack of time to throw for Purdy if the 49ers cannot end future Hall of Fame left tackle Trent Williams’ contract holdout before the start of the season a week from Monday.
The 49er offense fundamentally changes without Williams on the field. However, if the 49ers can find a way to break the impasse with Williams before the primetime opener with the Jets, then Aiyuk, with his elite route-running chops, his rapport with Purdy and the help he will get from his coach and surrounding talent, will be perfectly set up to avoid the post-contract letdown.