The Dallas Cowboys steep climb to playoff contention grew longer Monday night after a gutting 27-20 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Cowboys (5-8) entered the game as winners of back-to-back contests behind backup quarterback Cooper Rush and owners of improved spirits after a brutal stretch of losses and injuries. But the small winning streak never put them fully in the thick of the playoff race.
Monday’s loss makes it overwhelmingly unlikely that Dallas will never get there.
The Cowboys have less than a 1% chance to make the postseason after Monday’s loss, according to the New York Times’ playoff simulator. Dallas has already been eliminated from NFC East contention and is three games behind Washington (8-5) for the third wildcard spot with four games to play.
Even if the Cowboys win each of their final four games, their playoff odds rise only to 8% in the NYT model, which takes into account team performance and strength of schedule to predict game outcomes. While it’s not unreasonable to think Dallas could catch Washington, it’d also have to leapfrog at least four other teams to get into the postseason.
Here’s how the NFC seedings would look based on current records.
1. Lions (12-1 — NFC North leaders)
2. Eagles (11-2 — NFC East leaders)
3. Seahawks (8-5 — NFC West leaders )
4. Buccaneers (7-6 — NFC South leaders)
5. Vikings (11-2)
6. Packers (9-4)
7. Commanders (8-5)
————-PLAYOFF LINE—————
8. Rams (7-6)
9. Falcons (6-7)
10. Cardinals (6-7)
11. 49ers (6-7)
12. Saints (5-8)
13. Cowboys (5-8)
14. Bears (4-9)
15. Panthers (3-10)
16. Giants (2-11 — eliminated from playoff contention)
The Cowboys end the regular season with games against the Panthers, Buccaneers, Eagles and Commanders. And barring a stunning series of events, they’ll miss the playoffs for the first time since the 2020 season.