Here’s all the fantasy football advice you need in Week 7 to determine whether you should start or sit these players on the San Francisco 49ers.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 7 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Brock Purdy, QB
I don’t say this lightly, but does Purdy remind anyone else of a poor man’s version of peak Aaron Rodgers?
This season, Purdy’s aggressive grade (aDOT/yards per attempt), mobility score (rushing yards/pass attempts), and passer rating all stack up eerily similar to Rodgers’ best three-season stretch (2014-16, the stretch following the fractured clavicle). Both control/controlled tempo, leveraging their efficiency and betting that the opponent can’t stay as consistent.
I don’t say that to ruffle feathers. I say that because I think a strong run of production may be coming, and last week was a signal (251 yards and three touchdowns in Seattle) as opposed to an excuse to sell.
Peak Aaron Rodgers:
2014, Weeks 7-14: QB1 in points per game 2015, Weeks 9-14: QB5 in points per game 2016, Weeks 7-14: QB1 in points per game
With time and comfort, the version of Rodgers that I’m comparing to Purdy dominated the middle of the season. As we approach that window for Purdy, he’s got a nice run coming up of QBs that will push him to put up fantasy numbers (Patrick Mahomes this week, followed by Dak Prescott, Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith, and Jordan Love).
Smith is the outlier, but we just saw Purdy go to Seattle and post a big week. The majority of those defenses give up over two-thirds of opponent yardage to come through the air, making them vulnerable to Purdy’s efficiency.
I suspect that Purdy isn’t viewed as a strong Tier 2 fantasy signal-caller by most and that the manager with him rostered might sweat the return of Christian McCaffrey. It might feel like a buy-high after a nice Week 7 — I think, in a month, the price you’re being asked to pay today will feel like a significant discount.
Jordan Mason, RB
Mason entered Week 6 having been an RB1 in three of five games and was running well (82 yards on 10 touches) before suffering a shoulder injury. Kyle Shanahan sounded optimistic about his lead running back during the halftime interview, but after handling the first carry of the third quarter, Mason’s evening was done.
Rookie Isaac Guerendo picked up the slack (10 carries for 99 yards, a stat line that would have included a score if he elected to finish a 76-yard run instead of kneeling just shy to help ice the game) and is a deserving addition in all formats.
As good as Christian McCaffrey is, we have an extended sample of running backs in this system thriving, and should Mason sit this week, Guerendo’s path to a featured role is about as clear as it gets (Patrick Taylor Jr. would be RB2 on the depth chart in this instance).
The matchup is a concern. Bijan Robinson scored 13.2 PPR points against the Chiefs in Week 3, serving as the high water mark for the position against the defending champs this season (limiting J.K. Dobbins and Zack Moss is one thing, but Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry have both also played the Chiefs this season). In fact, the Henry, Robinson, and Kamara trio totaled 40 carries in their K.C. matchup and none of them had a 10-yard rush.
What we saw from Guerendo last week is enough for me to drop my touch projection for Mason, even if completely cleared, but that’s nitpicking. Mason (5.3 yards per carry this season with an 18+ yard touch in every game this season) will be ranked closer to RB12 than RB5 if he’s active, and Guerendo shifts from off my radar to a mid-range RB2 if the lead role is handed over to him.
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Brandon Aiyuk, WR
After a Week 5 breakout against the Cardinals (8-147-0 on a 37.5% target share), expectations were high against a Seahawks team that struggles to defend perimeter receivers. Two catches and 37 yards later, all of us with exposure to Aiyuk were let down significantly to kick off last week.
Aiyuk didn’t have much of a preseason, and while I don’t doubt that it affected his form, I think the greater impact of his absence was Purdy’s time to develop chemistry in this system and with other pass catchers.
Aiyuk saw just one first-half target last Thursday night, suggesting that getting him looks wasn’t a priority in the pre-game script.
Listen, this is San Francisco. We’ve seen this before. Entering the season, my opinion was that after any down week for any of their primary options, take the temperature of your league, and after any spike week for any of their primary options, take the temperature of your league.
Aiyuk, Samuel, and George Kittle are all elite options, and they’re all going to have their moments in the sun.
It’ll be frustrating, but you knew that when you drafted this summer. If you roster Aiyuk, I think you’re playing him every week in which he is active and not thinking twice about it.
Deebo Samuel Sr., WR
Process or results?
Samuel’s 76-yard catch-and-run was among the flashy highlights last Thursday night. Plus, he was handed the ball four times, his most since the season-opening win against the Jets. In theory, the ability to rip off big plays and gain volume on the ground should make Samuel a bona fide star — and yet, I’m worried.
Weeks 4-6, targets per route:
Jauan Jennings: 23.8% George Kittle: 22.4% Brandon Aiyuk: 21.9% Samuel: 15.1%
That table doesn’t even include some nice development for Jordan Mason (Weeks 4-6: 11.5%, up from 4.5% through Week 3), something that will need to be factored in as Christian McCaffrey nears his season debut.
Samuel’s name and YAC skills make him a starter in all formats this week and in the short term, but this is the type of player that I often try to move after a productive outing. Last week was certainly that.
Jauan Jennings, WR
From Weeks 2-5, Jennings was on the field for 63.5% of San Francisco’s offensive snaps, and being on the field regularly is the best way to take advantage of a highly efficient offense like this one.
He showed well for himself when given the opportunity, but his stock is fading quickly with the 49ers now healthy. Against the Seahawks last week, Jennings was on the field for just 49.2% of snaps, a rate that is more likely to regress further than bounce back.
Jennings is to be used like a handcuff receiver — stash him and deploy him if he rises up the depth chart, but ignore him otherwise. He’s a nice player to have on your bench right now, but not in your starting lineup.
George Kittle, TE
With a touchdown in four straight games and a 25+ yard grab in three of five, Kittle is giving managers Grade-A production that is magnified due to the underwhelming nature of the TE position league-wide. Of course, I don’t think we get this sort of weekly production for the remainder of the season, but nothing he is doing when looking underneath the hood looks unsustainable.
Kittle, 2024 rates vs. career rates:
aDOT: 7.7 vs. 7.9 On-field target share: 21.3% vs. 21.1% Targets per game: 7.0 vs. 6.5
I love the fact that he has already matched his end-zone target count from a season ago and that his third-down target share is up nine full percentage points. A historic season isn’t something I’m expecting, but Kittle is the clear front-runner for TE1 honors this season — I’m not fighting that.
In theory, selling him is viable. But that likely puts you in the TE streamer world, and I wouldn’t wish that upon my worst enemy. Understand that some valleys will come as this offense rounds into full form, but I’d generally embrace the ride.