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What to watch for as Brock Purdy and the 49ers face a potentially season-defining test against the Patriots

Posted on September 30, 2024 - 1:21 am by

A Week 4 game in which the San Francisco 49ers are heavily favored wouldn’t typically be regarded as one that could define their season.

But, after successive defeats to the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams, the Niners’ meeting with the New England Patriots is just that.

Win convincingly as most expect, and the 49ers will be back on track at 2-2 and still firmly in the mix in the NFC. Fall to another upset defeat and drop to 1-3, and fears that this will be a season in which the Niners fall back to the pack after years of going deep into the playoffs will look well-founded.

How far the 49ers go in 2024 looks increasingly likely to hinge on how Brock Purdy develops in his second full season as starter, and the challenge the Patriots will present the San Francisco quarterback headlines what to watch for as the Niners aim to right the ship at home.



Purdy’s new narrative

Rightly or wrongly, for a long time many have committed to the narrative that Purdy’s remarkable success with the 49ers as the final pick in the 2022 draft is predominantly a product of Kyle Shanahan’s scheme and the talent he has around him.

His superb performance in the Week 3 loss to the Rams without Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel and with receivers dropping a host of passes went a long way to debunking that narrative.

Purdy saw a career-low 22 percent of his passing yards against the Rams come after the catch. His 328 air yards were the second most of his career, while TruMedia’s charting gave him zero off-target throws in a game where he had an average depth of target of 10.7 yards. Despite being without several stars, Purdy’s rate of 0.35 Expected Points Added per drop back was the eighth-highest of his career



In the wake of that display in which he overcame a distinct lack of support, save for the remarkable performance of Jauan Jennings, meant that Purdy left Week 3 leading the NFL in adjusted EPA per play (which adjusts for pass protection, receiver drops, dropped interceptions, luck on interceptable passes, fumble recoveries and interception returns).

Those are certainly not the numbers of a quarterback being carried by his team. Instead, Purdy has been doing the carrying. 

He might not have to do so as much with Samuel and Kittle back in the fold. 



However, if he produces a performance of a similar caliber against a Patriots defense that limited the Cincinnati Bengals to 10 points in Week 1, it will build hope that he and the offense can be the driving force behind another Super Bowl push if the 49er defense continues to struggle.

Handling the Hargrave loss

The performance of the 49er defense over the last two weeks has been extremely concerning. It was impressive in the season-opening win over the New York Jets, but has since found stops largely difficult to come by.

There are several reasons for the Niners’ difficulty in slowing down opponents. San Francisco’s 31 pressures rank 23rd in the league, per Sports Info Solutions, while a secondary that is the most talented of the Shanahan era has consistently given up explosive plays.



Perhaps the most significant issue the 49ers have endured, however, is in run defense. They rank 30th in rush EPA per play over the last two weeks and now face a New England offense that excels on the ground.

“Oh yeah, that’s why I think they’re a real good team,” Shanahan said of the Patriots’ commitment to the run game. 

“The way they play defense, their two running backs, the way they’re committed to the run, the type of quarterback they have with that. I think that makes them a very good team.”

Stopping Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson figures to be more difficult following the loss of defensive tackle Javon Hargrave for the season to a torn triceps muscle. Jordan Elliott will likely start in his place next to Maliek Collins while the 49ers also elevated rookie Evan Anderson from the practice squad for Week 4. Anderson has an ability to hold his ground against double teams that could prove extremely useful in this game.



San Francisco may well give Yetur Gross-Matos and Sam Okuyainonu, whom they promoted from the active roster permanently on Saturday, snaps inside to compensate for the loss of Hargrave’s interior pass rush prowess.

Going against a New England offensive line set to start its fourth left tackle in as many games, the 49er defensive front will be confident of creating disruption defending the pass. However, the Niners will only get the chance to rush the passer if they can stop the run without Hargrave. 

Minimizing the equalizer

Despite the 49ers’ defensive issues, the place where the Patriots are most likely to level the playing field is on special teams.

San Francisco’s special teams has been a nightmare over the last two weeks, with the defeat to the Rams a nadir.

The 49ers allowed a first down on a fake punt when leading 14-0 that gave the Rams life. Jake Moody missed a 55-yard field goal that would have iced the game for the Niners, and Mitch Wishnowsky’s very returnable punt was run back to midfield to set the Rams up in great field position to kick the game-winner.



Shanahan said of the special teams on Wednesday:

“I’ve got a lot of confidence in [special teams coordinator] Brian [Schneider]. He’s sick about some of these plays that have happened here these last couple weeks. We’re just trying to be on every detail, like we try to every week. But yeah, we can’t have these two mistakes. I thought we were in a bad, I didn’t think we had the right look on the fake punt. But as far as with the blocked punt [against the Vikings] and stuff, it’s just going back to technique, coaching guys up on that better who were in that for the first time and making sure they continue to get better so it doesn’t happen again.”

San Francisco, per FTN Fantasy, ranks 30th in special teams DVOA. New England is 10th. That is a huge disparity, one the 49ers can’t afford to be apparent in Week 4. 



Simply put, the special teams unit has to make sure it responds to the coaching and avoids errors that could set in motion a massive upset.