Sharps on the Jags in Week 4, Public still betting on favorites
After three weeks of being fooled by the favorites, the public might not be able to resist betting on them once again in Week 4 of the NFL season.
For the first time this season, there will likely be a double-digit favorite. The desperate San Francisco 49ers host the struggling New England Patriots, who are coming off an ugly performance against the New York Jets. At one point Wednesday, the 49ers were on the board as 11-point favorites at Station Casinos sportsbooks across Las Vegas before the line dropped to -10.5.
Some Kansas City Chiefs supporters might be counting their money already too because the back-to-back Super Bowl champions face a banged-up Los Angeles Chargers team that will probably be without several key players. But the Chiefs will be on the road and have to make up plenty of ground as -7.5 favorites.
Last week, five out of the six teams that were underdogs of +5.5 points or more won their respective game outright. The Washington Commanders (+7.5 vs. Bengals), the New York Giants (+6.5 vs. Browns), the Denver Broncos (+6 vs. the Buccaneers), the Carolina Panthers (+5.5 vs. Raiders) and the Los Angeles Rams (+6 vs. the 49ers) all pulled out upset wins. Four of those five teams were on the road. It was more of the same in the first two weeks of the season with the biggest underdogs winning their games outright.
The only team that didn’t cover from that +5.5 group in Week 3 was the Patriots (+6.5 vs. the Jets), which could explain why many bettors are willing to look past the 49ers’ laundry list of injuries and sizable spread on Sunday.
“Whatever we thought we knew about pro football going into the season, we don’t know anything,” says Chuck Esposito, the race and sports director for Station Casinos. “It’s really been an unusual start to the season. The teams that you expected to be really good, you can throw in the Cowboys, 49ers and the Ravens in the mix, they’re all below .500. … We’ve seen that happen in three straight weeks, dogs winning outright.”
The public might not have learned its lesson from the unpredictability of the first three weeks, but the two games with wide spreads in Week 4 could also test the sharp bettors. There’s value in taking 10-plus points with the way the season has gone so far. Brock Purdy is dealing with a back injury and likely won’t have Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey on the field. Also, the defense has plenty of issues, especially with the potential season-ending pectoral injury to defensive tackle Javon Hargrave.
Even with all the injuries on the 49ers’ side, it might be best to avoid this game because the Patriots probably showed their true colors in the blowout loss to the Jets and now have to get on the plane across the country against a talented team in need of a win. But they are on 10 days’ rest, another reason to avoid this one.
There’s a stronger case to be made for the Chiefs to cover against the Chargers. Justin Herbert is dealing with an ankle injury and his tackles, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, could be long shots to play against Chris Jones & Co.
I would also avoid this game because of favorites failing to cover spreads over 5.5 points. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Chiefs jump out to an early double-digit lead before cruising at the end for the victory and a Chargers backdoor cover.
As for one game the sharps won’t avoid, Esposito is expecting plenty of money to come in throughout the week on the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are +6.5 underdogs against the Houston Texans, as of late Wednesday.
“I think the public is going to back the Texans really heavily, but we have seen some early sharp play on the Jags, especially at +7 points,” Esposito says. “The Jags have been arguably one of the bigger disappointments in the league so far.”
Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is one of many signal-callers who have struggled this season. Esposito said that could explain the high amount of total lines going under this season, including 11 of 16 games in Week 3.
It might be better to bet the under in games instead of betting against underdogs in the NFL.
“You got young quarterbacks who are really struggling right now,” Esposito says. “I think all that kind of plays into when you’re looking at some of these games, why you’re seeing a lot more games go under and a lot more parity in the league as well.”